Today’s Presentation at the CSIRO and DFAT’s System Planning Workshop
A short post to note our presentation for the CSIRO's South-East Asian System Planning Workshop in Brisbane this afternoon, and the analysis we shared.
All Posts
Unplanned outage on Yallourn Unit 2 pushed out ~2 weeks (with new RTS Thursday 25th September 2025)
An updated look (as at 14:10 on Thu 28th Aug 2025) of expected return to service for YWPS2
Tasmanian demand drop on 16 August 2025 – part 2
We follow on from A 292MW drop in "Market Demand" in Tasmania, on Saturday 16th August 2025 enlisting this "Part 2" to understand the sequence of events using 4-second data.
Frequency change with Yallourn unit 2 trip
We assess whether the trip at Yallourn 2 on 26 August 2025 was large enough to drive a frequency disturbance.
Peeling the onion a little more – Solar Farm performance on Tuesday 19th August 2025, with the frequency spike to 50.2Hz
As the 5th article in an evolving series that progressively explores the (apparent self-forecasting glitch and) frequency spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025, we take an early look at Solar Farm performance.
Prices spiking again in South Australia (for Lower 1 second FCAS) on Wednesday 27th August 2025
A very short article with a snapshot from ez2view at the 11:15 dispatch interval – highlighting that Lower 1-second FCAS prices in the South Australian region are spiking (yet again!).
Notable forced outage at Yallourn Unit 2 … due to ‘LP turbine issue’
A first article about an unplanned (and potentially significant) outage at Yallourn unit 2 that began on Tuesday 26th August 2025 due to 'LP turbine issues'.
Several coal units offline (on Wednesday 27th August 2025) with unplanned outages
A short note with a snapshot of the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view (at 08:30 on Wed 27th Aug 2025) to highlight some coal units offline.
Following the 2025 ESOO, MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in the South Australian region (Dec 2026 to March 2027)
Following from the release of the 2025 ESOO last Thursday, the subsequent weekly MT PASA run warns of *forecast* LRC (and unserved energy) in South Australia.
The current burst of production at Tamar Valley CCGT coming to an end, on Thu 28th August 2025?
An article in the Australian by Colin Packham prompts a look in AEMO data about expectations for when Tamar Valley CCGT might be switched off.
Guest Authored Posts
The increasingly stochastic and volatile NEM
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Detailed Analysis
An updated tabular list of instances of large AggROT across Semi-Scheduled units
Earlier today we trended the incidence of large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this updated tabulated list, we list each of the largest instances from January 2024 to June 2025.
Frequency performance payments 44 days in, part 2
Categories with a longer bar left of zero are losing more of their spot energy market revenue to regulation and PFR costs.
Basslink flows shift since end of agreement on 30th June 2025
An agreement restraining how Basslink is bid into the energy market has ended, resulting in changes in bidding and energy flows.
Frequency Performance Payments 44 days in
An initial review of payment and cost outcomes of the first 44 days of financial operation of the FPP arrangements.
The trend continues: a review of Q2 2025 spot prices
For nearly a decade, we’ve published annual reviews of Q2 prices to highlight the growing volatility during this period. Here’s our latest edition, examining how Q2 2025 compared.
ENTSO-E is also investigating the 28th April 2025 blackout on the Iberian Peninsula
For those interested in ‘what happened, why and what should be done about it’ with respect to the 28th April 2025 blackout on the Iberian Peninsula, ENTSO-E is also investigating.
Red Electrica report on the “Blackout in Spanish Peninsula Electrical System on 28th of April 2025”
On Wednesday 18th June 2025 Red Eléctrica (REE) published on the “Blackout in Spanish Peninsula Electrical System on 28th of April 2025” .
The Non-Confidential Report (182 pages) into the Iberian blackout
Earlier today we wrote about the ‘News Release on the blackout on the Iberian Peninsula...’. Here's the report (which we could not find at the time).